Sunday, September 20, 2009

is this a top?

Sensex made a high of 16820 on Thursday 17th September and then came back to 16610 on friday and closed at 16741 and closed positive to keep uptrend intact.

Following are the points which could be in favor that top is already in place
1. more than 80% of analysts are calling for more upward rally of nifty atleast till 5050 to 5150
according to theory of contrary opinion market alwaysd does opposite to conceseus
2. There is a complecency among long traders who beleieve that there would be no surprise from global markets and they are ready to bet their long positions even with long weekends
3. Few weeks ago china led fall of global markets for couple of days, after that there was a bounceback. On friday China fell more than 3% indicating new leg down might have started, but all other markets ignored that, these could prove dangeorous
4. Several signalslike KST are showing negative divergence i.e. though sensex is moving to new high signals like KST are near to zero/
5. The rate of rise per day for sensex is just 100 points per day in this rally of 20 days from 14700 as compared to the last rallies

These are indications that the top atleast a short term is already in place, however as far as trading is concerned untill and unless there is a confirmation of weakness we should be with the trend...

1 comment:

  1. Sarvesh,
    Hi,
    What exactly..is confirmed top?
    You said we will come to know?
    How?..can you discuss or point out the tell-tale signs of the fall..and how to observe...and if then...when and how to short?

    ReplyDelete