is this a top?

Sensex made a high of 16820 on Thursday 17th September and then came back to 16610 on friday and closed at 16741 and closed positive to keep uptrend intact.

Following are the points which could be in favor that top is already in place
1. more than 80% of analysts are calling for more upward rally of nifty atleast till 5050 to 5150
according to theory of contrary opinion market alwaysd does opposite to conceseus
2. There is a complecency among long traders who beleieve that there would be no surprise from global markets and they are ready to bet their long positions even with long weekends
3. Few weeks ago china led fall of global markets for couple of days, after that there was a bounceback. On friday China fell more than 3% indicating new leg down might have started, but all other markets ignored that, these could prove dangeorous
4. Several signalslike KST are showing negative divergence i.e. though sensex is moving to new high signals like KST are near to zero/
5. The rate of rise per day for sensex is just 100 points per day in this rally of 20 days from 14700 as compared to the last rallies

These are indications that the top atleast a short term is already in place, however as far as trading is concerned untill and unless there is a confirmation of weakness we should be with the trend...

daily analysis for 13th Sep

As shown in 30-minute chart, it can be assumbed that we are in g leg of diametric, starting from 15046, g leg is assumed to be containing 2 correctives, 1st one as shown in the chart was extracting triangle and 2nd is also being devloped as extracting triangle. Its c?,d?,e? are marked. ? is added to the c,d,e because the end of triangle is not yet confirmed.

we can few scenorios devloping which will confirm the wave structure.

Option 1. On Monday its gaps down below friday's low and goes below opening low, then we can confirm that entrie extracting triangle is ended with g leg ending, which can start the bigger fall.

Option 2 shown in green line e still continues upward, but remains less than c and then cuts bd in faster time then we can confirm that entrie extracting triangle is ended with g leg ending, which can start the bigger fall.

Option 3 gaps down but holds bd? trendline and then rise upward It will have 2 possibilities either c continues upward which will shift c? or it can end d at bd? trendline and then scenario builds as per option 2. In case of it shifts c, then c ideally should not end at the parrallel line, because then it will call for complex corrective within c

Option 4 It gaps up, then it will be similar to option 3

Daily chart chartacle is same as of last time

Analysis for 7th September

As shown in 2nd chart i.e. half hourly chart On friday sensex held thursday's low and formed a bull candle, when everybody was bearish.

It confirmed that earlier wave D inside bigger g leg of diametric. d leg can be considred as double combination, the pattern implication of this wave can be 80% As shown in above chart E leg started on friday, it can move 80% of D which is approximately 15837, also to keep extraction logic live, E leg needs to be less than C leg, so it should not move beyond 15890, if it is extraction triangle, sensex should immediately retrace E leg with faster retracement downwards. If E leg moves above 15890 or next leg does not retrace E leg faster, we can assume that diametric is forming which can have F & G leg after e ends. This small diametric would be G leg of bigger diametric. If it is a diametric sensex can move above 16k. The pattern implication of ending triangle of bigger F wave is around 16200 to 16500. generally last leg of any formation ( G leg of diametric in this case) itself forms the same formation.

As shown in daily chart the sensex is forming G leg On friday sensex took support exactly on line joining d-f to keep alive bull's hopes. G leg has already taken 10 days, earlier legs of this diametric have taken 11 to 18 days, if we consider that, sensex has till around 7 days to complete G wave. After G wave ends it needs to be seen whether this leg ends the rally or it is a running correction and rally continues which will prove bulls victorious.

Following points are in favour that after g the rally will end.
1. If you compare a, c, e leg of the diametric in daily chart, the rise is 1078 points per days, 171 points per day and 163 points per day respectively for g till now the rally is only 86 points per day only, this shows that Though sensex is forming new highs the strength of the rally is decreasing with each leg of thge diametric
2. The FIIs have started becoming sellers in last week.
3. Crude oil has fallen to $67 from $75.
To keep continuing the rally after g leg the above points need to be reversed.

Analysis for 2nd September

Analysis: The action formed a bear pattern like a hammer, sensex again failed to cross over its previous resistance of 16k, it shows clear defeat of bulls at resistance levels and again showed that market always surprised when everybody was so bullish on monday

Half hourly chart shows that an extracting triangle forming as a part of last wave of the diametric g leg, where rally gets smaller and fall gets bigger since low of last week's friday. Today's fall action looks like D leg after initial rally ended as C leg. Inside C leg appears as irregular flat c failure, which has implcation of atleast 1.618 times of b leg starting from c leg i.e. D leg should go to atleast 15329 as shown in the chart, after that E leg should follow which should end the g leg of the diametric and then proceed with the fall as shown in red line

Daily chart shows continuation of g leg of diametric, g leg confirmed as non impulsive since it broke 0-b line yesterday. sensex formed low today exactly at the trendline joining march low and low of d and f of diametric. Can sensex give a pullback as it has done since last 3 months from this trendline or break the trendline after completion of g leg going as shown in red line respecting seasonal fall of september month. September always have been a falling month in world market...