Chart prediction for 31st August 2009

Daily chart & half hourly chart
Analysis: As shown in daily chart on Friday it formed a bull candlestic pattern, with its high on 15957.67 and low at 15663, Index closed at 15922. Nifty made a 2009 year high, but sensex just missed its high of 2009 i.e. 16002. The volumes were good, its a bullish indication.
On half hourly chart the correction formed between last Tuesday and Friday was a running correction to the rally from 14835.08 to 15677.80 appears to be a running correction with its low is near to the rally's high. If we consider rally as 1 and correction to its rally as 2, This gives target of atleast (15677.80-14835.08) = 842 + 15663 = 16505, or 842*1.618 + 15663 = 17025 in a week's time, the chart prediction is shown in red line.
On Daily chart the rally from last yesterday's high can be still considered as g leg of diametric as shown in daily chart which has target of 16500 - 17k. The g leg can take time of 7 or 11 or 18 days, which are luca's number. As the earlier legs of the current diametric have taken 11 or 18 days, of which only 5 days are completed. The chart prediction is shown in red line, which is also a 0-2 line of the current rally from last friday.

Chart prediction for 31st August 2009

Daily chart & half hourly chart

Analysis: As shown in daily chart on Friday it formed a bull candlestic pattern, with its high on 15957.67 and low at 15663, Index closed at 15922. Nifty made a 2009 year high, but sensex just missed its high of 2009 i.e. 16002. The volumes were good, its a bullish indication.

On half hourly chart the correction formed between last Tuesday and Friday was a running correction to the rally from 14835.08 to 15677.80 appears to be a running correction with its low is near to the rally's high. If we consider rally as 1 and correction to its rally as 2, This gives target of atleast (15677.80-14835.08) = 842 + 15663 = 16505, or 842*1.618 + 15663 = 17025 in a week's time, the chart prediction is shown in red line.

On Daily chart the rally from last yesterday's high can be still considered as g leg of diametric as shown in daily chart which has target of 16500 - 17k. The g leg can take time of 7 or 11 or 18 days, which are luca's number. As the earlier legs of the current diametric have taken 11 or 18 days, of which only 5 days are completed. The chart prediction is shown in red line, which is also a 0-2 line of the current rally from last friday.

Analysis for 27th August

Review of 26th August

The action formed long legged DOJI indicating indecisiveness, also showing resistance at high of 15831, which achieved the target of measuring gap from 15276-15363. On 30 minute chart it broke the rising trend line and closed below the trend line by making lower highs and lower lows. It shows a resistance near to previous high. Sensex could come back again to yesterday'support 15423 or 15276, if it is not able to cross today's high, for bull case sensex need to cross today's high. Today was the 3rd day of g leg of diametric as shown in daily chart. This leg can take 7 or 11 days which is Luca's number as taken by previous legs. Also bigger targets for this leg could be 16k to 16600 which are 75% to 125% retracement of largest leg of previous fall which was considered as contracting triangle. Tomorrow being expiry could be volatile.

S&P gives sell signal on friday 14th August

S&P gives a sell signal on friday with MACD crossover on daily chart.

Sensex Analysis for 17th August

Analysis: Sensex showed indecision on friday with a candle inside last day's candle. support is at friday' low 15368, 15208 which is Thursday' low, as well as Thursday's gap. The resistance is at 15545, If these support holds sensex has target of 15709-15740 as mentioned in earlier analysis. The 5 days oscillator is still at overbought condition which may indicate profit booking at higher level. If sensex crosses 15970 by tomorrow, it will indicate faster retracement of last wave.
On medium term if we join March low with 13220, it almost coincides with last week low of 14700. It forms an important medium trndline and sensex has to obey this trendline to move up. Medium term shows a bow tie corrective diametric shape on sensex daily chart from election rally, which has 7 lags i.e. expanding triangle in first half and contrating shape in second half. The sensex is within the range of 13k to 16k for past almost 4 months and it requires a huge buying to go past 16k. Very short term sensex may show some upside, but as and when it approaches to 16k bulls would have to be very careful.

Daily view on Sensex/Nifty for 13th August

Analysis on Daily chart : It was a gap up day i.e. Belt hold Line type on candlestic chart. The gap of (15208-15044) = 164 points is visible on Daily Sensex chart. Generally according to my experience points of gap are traveresed from the high/low in the diection of gap as long as Gap holds in daily chart. i.e. (15545-days high + 164) = 15709 becomes the next target for the sensex as long as the gap holds. The sensex also closed above the 13 day moving average. The sensex always has taken the support of 13 day moving average since the rally from March. Only 2 times it had breached the average since March. Once from Budget and 2nd time after heating 16k. Now as long as the sensex is above 13 DMA, it will be bullish.
The sensex has traversed 67% of the fall from 15970. If we considered 80% retracement it is 15715 is the next target, which is closer to 15709 mentioned above. However 5 day fast Oscillator is now at 96 nearly overbought condition.
Wave structure wise if rally started yesterday crosses 15970 in faster time, it will mean that it is a same part of wave that started from 13220 and reached 16k, because fall from 15970 to 14701 took only 4 days, wherease rally from 13220 to 16k took 18 days, which does not satisfy principle of similarty for new wave. For downturn to continue it needs to retrace the last segment of the 2 days rally in faster time.

Most important learning in Technical Analysis

I have been learning technical analysis since 3 years and making profits and losses in trading.
When I look back to find out what would be my most important learning in TA till now.
I considered various stratergies as learning, but most important learning is to always have alternate structure ready if expected structure goes wrong. You may not plan for expected stratergy, because any way you will be in profits, but alternate analysis/wave structure has to be ready to avoid huge losses. Huge losses happen in panic and Panic always happens if you come across any unexpected things. Nature always surprises us and Stock Market is Nature of trends. It will always show that history repeats, and one of thing it repeats is it always surprises everybody including you. Hence you should be always ready with alternate wave structure/trend assumming that the trend wont go in your favor.

Lucas Number

What Are Lucas number?
The Lucas numbers are an integer sequence named after the mathematician François Édouard Anatole Lucas (1842–1891), who studied both that sequence and the closely related Fibonacci numbers (both are Lucas sequences). Like the Fibonacci numbers, each Lucas number is defined to be the sum of its two immediate previous terms, i.e. it is a Fibonacci integer sequence. Consequently, the ratio between two consecutive Lucas numbers converges to the golden ratio(1.618). However, the first two Lucas numbers are L0 = 2 and L1 = 1 instead of 0 and 1, and the properties of Lucas numbers are therefore somewhat different from those of Fibonacci numbers. The sequence of Lucas numbers begins:
2, 1, 3, 4, 7, 11, 18, 29, 47, 76, 123

How are they significant?
1. Their ratio which is same as that of fibbonacci numbers i.e. 1.618 0r 0.618 forms a support and resistance levels for dips and rallies respectively
2. In many cases it can be found that a signifcant top or bottom is made in the timeframe since the rally or dips start.
e.g. Top of 10482 was formed on sensex on 7th Jan 2009 after 47 days from bottom 27th October 2008
e.g. Bottom of 18th march 2008 was made after 47 days from top of 10th January 2008

My first blog

This is my first blog. My name is Sarvesh Damle, leaving in Thane maharashtra, India.
I am BE in Electrical Engineering. I have been studying and practicing technical analysis for sensex as well as stock market subject for past 3 years. I have read n number books in the same subject. The word Chartacle derived from "Chart" + "Oracle" i.e. predicting the charts of various stocks/commodities. This word was originated from my discussion with Mr. Vivek patil, elliot wave analyst in India. I have learnt a lot from him in this subject.
I will try to write as much as I can in this blog.